How to Set a Black Friday Budget in 2026

How much people spend over Black Friday weekend

There is no single official Black Friday number. Different groups measure different things: what each shopper spent, what shoppers planned to spend, or the total spent online. Here is the newest figure from each.

Source: NRF, Dec 2025; Deloitte, Nov 2025; Adobe, Dec 2025 and Sep 2026.

NRF’s figure is the closest thing to a typical shopper’s actual bill. Its survey of 3,099 adults, taken Nov. 26 to 30, 2025, found shoppers spent $337.86 each on holiday-related purchases over the weekend. That was up from $315.56 in 2024, a rise of $22.30 (our calculation), and the highest since 2019. About $225.74, or two-thirds, went to gifts.

Deloitte’s $622 is a plan, not a receipt, and it may include things that are not holiday gifts. It was down 4% from 2024. Either way, a typical Black Friday weekend runs a few hundred dollars per shopper.

The 2026 versions of these surveys are not out yet. Last year, NRF released its Thanksgiving weekend forecast on Nov. 20 and its results on Dec. 2, and Deloitte published its Black Friday survey on Nov. 24. We will update this page when the 2026 numbers are out.

Black Friday 2026 dates

Thanksgiving is Thursday, Nov. 26, 2026. That makes Black Friday Nov. 27, and Adobe lists Cyber Monday as Nov. 30. Adobe calls those five days, Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday, Cyber Week.

What the 2026 forecasts say

Adobe tracks online sales at U.S. retailers. Its September 2026 forecast expects a record holiday season online:

• Cyber Week (Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday): $47.5 billion, up 7.4%. That is 17.3% of all online holiday spending.
• Cyber Monday: $15.1 billion, up 6.2%. It is still the biggest online shopping day.
• Black Friday: $12.9 billion, up 9.2%.
• Thanksgiving Day: $6.9 billion, up 8.5%.
• The weekend in between: about $12.6 billion (our calculation, from Adobe’s Cyber Week total minus the three days above).
• Whole season, Nov. 1 to Dec. 31: $275.1 billion online, up 6.7%.

For the full holiday season across stores and online, NRF forecasts November and December retail sales will grow 4.2% to $1.013 trillion. Deloitte’s 2026 holiday survey puts average planned household spending at $1,654, with $988 of that on gifts and other retail goods. Deloitte also found 44% of shoppers plan to shop on Cyber Monday.

Which day has the best deals

Discounts do not all peak on the same day. Adobe’s 2026 forecast for the deepest online discounts, off listed price:

Source: Adobe Digital Insights 2026 holiday forecast, Sep 28, 2026.

These are peak discounts off the listed price, not the average deal. A “40% off” tag on something that never sold at full price is not a 40% saving. Checking prices for a few weeks before Thanksgiving is the simplest way to tell.

How people pay, and where it goes wrong

Black Friday is not just a spending event. For many people it is a borrowing event.

• Credit and buy now, pay later are common. In Deloitte’s 2025 survey, 64% of Black Friday to Cyber Monday shoppers planned to use credit cards or buy now, pay later to stretch their budgets. Those shoppers expected to spend 12% more than average.
• Buy now, pay later is big online. Adobe forecasts $807 million in buy now, pay later spending on Black Friday 2026 and $1.09 billion on Cyber Monday. For all of November and December, it expects $21.3 billion.
• Loans can stack up. The CFPB found that in 2022, about 63% of buy now, pay later borrowers had several loans open at once at some point in the year, and 33% used more than one lender. Each loan looks small. Together they can crowd out other bills.
• Debt lingers. In LendingTree’s October 2025 survey of 2,050 adults, 38% of past Black Friday shoppers said they went into debt for their purchases, and 15% were still paying it off.
• Impulse buys add up. In the same survey, 46% said at least a quarter of their Black Friday purchases were impulse buys, and 16% said more than half were.
• Budgets are common, but loose. LendingTree found 78% of planned Black Friday shoppers intended to budget, but only 56% of them expected to stick closely to it.

The cost of carrying a balance is real. The Federal Reserve’s latest data put the average rate on credit card accounts that paid interest at 22.15% (second quarter of 2026). A 25% discount does not help much if you pay interest on the purchase for a year.

How to set your Black Friday budget

A Black Friday budget works best as one slice of your total holiday budget, not a separate pot. Here is a simple way to set it.

1. Start from your total holiday number. Include gifts, food, travel and decorations. If you do not have one yet, our Christmas spending guide shows what other households plan.
2. Subtract what you have already spent. Many people start early. Deloitte found a quarter of holiday shoppers had already bought during June promotions.
3. Decide what you will buy during Cyber Week. Pick the gifts and planned purchases that are likely to be discounted, and write a target price for each.
4. Add a small buffer. About 10% covers a surprise good deal without wrecking the plan.
5. Check that you can pay in cash. If the total is more than you can cover by your next card statement, cut the list instead of borrowing.
6. Match items to days. Use the table above. Electronics and computers tend to be cheapest on Cyber Monday, while toys and apparel tend to peak on Black Friday.

Worked example

This is an example with made-up round numbers, not an average. Say your total holiday budget is $1,200 and you have already spent $150.

All math is our calculation.

Now see what happens if you put the full $528 on a credit card at the Federal Reserve’s average 22.15% rate for accounts charged interest:

Rate: Federal Reserve G.19, 2026 Q2. Payoff math is our calculation and assumes no new charges.

Paying $50 a month adds about $65 to the cost, or roughly 12% of the purchases (our calculation). That can cancel out much of a typical Black Friday discount. If you split the $480 list into a pay-in-four plan, you would owe $120 every two weeks (our calculation), so put each payment date on your calendar before you check out.

How to stick to your Black Friday budget

1. Shop from the list. Deal pages are built to sell you things you did not plan to buy. If an item is not on the list, it comes out of the buffer or it waits.
2. Track as you go. Keep a running total on your phone across every store and app. Five-day sales spread across many sites make it easy to lose count.
3. Compare the price, not the percentage. Look up what an item sold for in early November. Some “deals” are the normal price.
4. Watch for loans stacking up. If you already have a buy now, pay later plan open, add its payments to your budget before you start another.
5. Know the return rules. Holiday return windows and price-adjustment policies vary by store. Check before you buy, especially for big items.
6. Use cash you set aside. A holiday line in your sinking funds through the year makes next November easier to pay in full.

How Black Friday fits your budget

Black Friday is a short burst of spending inside a bigger season. NRF’s 2025 survey found 84% of shoppers had started holiday shopping by Thanksgiving weekend, but 53% of their holiday shopping was still left to do. So whatever you spend over the weekend, plan for December too.

If you are already carrying a card balance, use the credit card payoff calculator to see what a new holiday balance would cost. To fit holiday spending into your monthly plan, try the 50/30/20 budget calculator.

See how we research every number on our method page, or browse more budgeting guides.